More Or Less — AI Business Model Wars & Marketing Genius of Silicon Valley
Thanksgiving week updates form the Surf Shack (instead of Pool House)… Dave really wants OpenAI to be in the steve-jobs style ‘computer’ business, but all the ex-meta people there seem to be talking (and marketing) attention… with a subscription story for experts? Really? Either way, in the game of AI business model musical chairs — it seems like OpenAI still is looking for an empty seat, where the incumbents are staying sitting on what they already do (remember for the last several years I have been saying this is an extending innovation) … also ..
- The San Francisco consensus & Silicon Valley’s real innovation- marketing
- Elon Zuck and megaphone-powered distribution
- Why interface distribution will decide AI winner
- Memory isn’t real lock-in switching between ChatGPT and Gemini
- OpenAI’s identity crisis: Apple-style computer vs Meta-style attention
- Google complex vs OpenAI complex how the narrative flipped
- Google TPUs vs Nvidia Meta’s rumored buying spree
- AI infrastructure economics depreciation CapEx margins
- Macro vs micro elections risk cycles
- DOE’s Genesis Mission and where the analogy breaks
- OpenAI's Jony Ive device timeline
- Why distribution still beats novelty
- Final takeaways: marketing distribution and business-model wars
Hot Takes
- The Etiquette Book — is available for purchase on kindle and paperback. It is an instant classic … enjoy, review, share. Or… if you don’t have $14 but really really love Etiquette… request a promotional / review copy and you owe us a TikTok or Instagram influencer video on how great it is (and I will judge you if you have exited your startup)
- Startup Revenue vs. Founder Follower Count on X — hilarious. I stay that especially as someone who really enjoys Twitter the Outrage Game (TM)
- Speaking of Twitter the Outrage Game (TM) — I am getting good at this… had my most viral tweet of the year by a large margin somewhat accidentally pitting the crypto degenerate YOLO crowd vs. traditional savers vs. people wanting to sub-tweet their personal returns in the market. To go viral, give folks something reasonable-ish to debate with very strong words, a way to self-promote seamlessly, and use numbers and math. This is the way.
- But Seriously, You Can’t Compound Your Way Anywhere Financially — end of year means long-term finance musings while walking around woods. If you really scope out to decades, capital gains is going up it feels like (and is already 37% in California), inflation isn’t going down is it? 3%… and what can you really get risk free in the market … 7% IMHO, maybe 10% if you are pure indexed equities … but let’s be honest 10% takes some risk… what does that mean? There is no free compounding lunch in the USA. On real terms you basically get to 1.5x on a 20 year basis. This is the root of a lot of issues folks face today. You can build businesses, you can go risk on… but there isn’t the glide path there was for boomers to just ‘be’
- “Economically insensitive and impervious to feedback” strong argument from the peanut gallery over thanksgiving leftovers that I really need to update my bios to this based on a hilarious attempt at a dig (which I found funny) in that awful attempt of a recent Facebook tell-all book… (I won’t even link it / buy my book instead)
- Penn Franklin Forum on 2 Years since Liz — you might not even know that 1636 Forum for Harvard has a Penn sibling… it does… good piece this week — it's been 2 years since the fateful congressional testimony that caused Claudine Gay and Liz Mcgill to step down as Harvard and Penn presidents...how much has changed? Franklin's Forum has the inside scoop on the first survey data on how Jewish students at penn are feeling (from a survey last semester) - 85% have seen or heard about antisemitism on campus, 31% felt the need to hide their identity, and 26% experienced antisemitic or anti-Israel comments from professors...
Hope everyone ate some great turkey,
Sam
P.S. Black Friday Meh, But Instagram Shopping is Everything — do people still care about ‘Black Friday’… it feels like the intensity there has fizzled out — now it is just ‘shopping’ in Nov and Dec.. and by ‘Shopping’ I mean just clicking on things on Instagram for more than yourself. This must be confusing to the algorithm / what to show… because now I am not just clicking on camping gear and skis, but basically anything kids or adults might like. The fun in all of this? Beyond being a meta shareholder and watching the algorithmic money-making-madness… When things come addressed to me at the house, it is quite a surprise to figure out what I bought and who I bought it for! Someday I hope the ads fed are just a bit more clear ‘buy this for your mom’… Jessica Ski, Jessica Surf, still Jessica.. now tennis, kid, … and while you are at it more for you!
P.P.S... i mean... how can you not like this book...