Chosen by the Claw.

More or Less - Twitter Was Elon’s Ultimate Vibe Buy & Holy SpaceX
The world is moving so fast this big news feels already old… but we break down more Elon world… The ‘vibe buy’ of X (remember when he tried to back out) as a HUGELY positive move for shaping the narrative through the elites & degens on twitter (not the biggest, but the most powerful) — it is great to have infinite lives in the narrative warfare world && these crazy XAI / SpaceX numbers — financially, how pissed are SpaceX investors — on the other hand, last year story was $200B with $1T maybe someday… now it is $1T obviously on 16B in revenue, so a 20% haircut for the ‘chips in space’ narrative is meh.

Of The Moment

The most frustrating thing about the hundreds of billions pouring into LLM foundation models right now is that even if you know it's an incinerator... you can't root against it. Because the gravity of that much capital and talent is going to drag everyone else along with it into the destruction.

This is the core problem with narrative capitalism. All value is memetic. Asset prices are stories we tell each other. The internet doesn't create stability -- it speed-runs the cycle. And right now, the LLM narrative is the biggest story in the market.

Meanwhile, the SaaS era continues to die exactly as predicted. I wrote in September 2024 that software is a business tool, not a business model. That take has aged extremely well. The companies still pricing like it's 2021 are in for a brutal correction.

The real question nobody is asking: what comes after the foundation model bonfire? My bet is on the mega-company thesis. The discrete company structure is becoming an intolerable constraint for certain entrepreneurs. SpaceX and Tesla merging isn't a question of if, but when. The future belongs to entities that can operate across narratives, not within them.

The investors who survive this cycle will be the ones who understand that you're not investing in technology. You're investing in stories. And stories have endings. -- sambot

Hot Takes

• CNBC Power Lunch on Narrative Capitalism… these were my pre-show notes… but then the conversation went elsewhere… why are SaaS stocks down… because in a world of total uncertainty and possible 1000x returns, who on earth wants something that best case grows 10-15%? … but can go to zero — never be in the middle — either GOLD or SpaceX… the middle makes no sense.
  


• I Told you SaaS isn’t a Business Model — You gotta victory lap the points when you can… and as I have been saying since 2024… SaaS is not a business model (too bad I never have the balls to short… maybe someday)
  


• Apple, the CAPEX GOAT — I hate that I am starting to like apple… but thumbing your nose at everyone and DROPPING your CAPEX from low-digit billions to less when everyone else is spending 100X is … kinda great.
  


• Why is Bot Money (Solana) Oversold — this is a good question posed by Daniel - asked and answered.. yes, the bots clearly need money to trade with each other.. and yes that will be crypto money… yet the most likely platforms where it works — down? Well yes… because macro ‘biggest wave’ dominates — it will take time for the reality to build and there will be a ton of trading along the way.
  


• Chosen by the (Open)Claw - why have the Toy Story memes not started yet? This is the most obvious thing ever…. OpenClaw is great / so fun… has been doing an excellent job with my LinkedIn comments & posts… It feels very early Facebook to me — the engineering isn’t the point, it is the exactly right timing and commercialization / flipping the script with the right shim at the right moment to express all the power and curiosity pent up in what you can do with bots run wild for users with total control… PS … as I have been saying over and over — this truly is THE END of the public internet… HTTP - game over, commons done… enclosure time and scorched earth on anything you can touch with the web.
  


• AI is Modern Gunpowder… So Why Are We Talking Moats and Castles? — here is the question — did I write this or did sambot… that is the big question :)
  


• Summary of the Moment — narrative collusion + deep uncertainty and asymmetry… is all you need to know about 2026
  


• FIGMA - Forest Meet Trees — I always enjoy when VCs get all mad about IPO pricing and ‘pops’ and how terrible they are / how they take advantage of companies… with zero disrespect to FIGMA or Dylan (who is nothing but wonderful) — watching the FIGMA stock price should remind people forest vs. trees… they raised capital at a fine price & if anything those that bought that IPO should be the sad ones (even if is all just narrative timing BS)
  


• Iger Mic Drop Moment — what a month… what a way to go out ... after all that rigmarole… stock down, IP given away, company to Tom.
  


• Elon the Mega-Creator — for once will H/T a post I didn’t write… but only because I did write the thesis and start the fund :) — yes… Elon is the ultimate creator, and yes the consolidation of his companies into Super-Mega-Elon-Corporation is both how he hits his crazy comp cliffs AND exactly the creator fund thesis we have.

Sam

P.S. I am so happy to report that I also made the Epstein files… in the most fun way possible / exactly on brand… and to everyone else apologizing for their side-mentions… this is what I have to say

P.P.S. Industry this season is actually really smart… and for those yelling at me for over-using the word ‘narrative’ … and framework of stories that outrun reality becoming self-fulfilling prophecies, I say — at least one show running team tends to agree :) — The irony in our wold at this moment? Writers mostly don’t get paid, but for humans it is ALL about storytelling… we store value in stories, stories dictate what we do, etc… and the stories we tell and believe are only getting wilder.

I still owe you all my grand thesis of AI meaning… noted for my next long flight.

SWL