More or Less: The World Between Catching Flying Skyscrapers with Toothpicks and Borderline Security Fraud — What an Elon Week. This week we go back and forth on how to emotionally and practically deal with a guy representing innovation & US tech who simultaneously delivers space internet and catches flying buildings with toothpicks, but also has no problem running an epcot style living+ showpiece event with robots operated by people, non-existent robo taxies… all to support a meme-stock pricing on a car company. What a paradox of a human!
Some Hot Takes:
- The Elon Stan Army on twitter had it out for me for pointing out that the market wasn’t too happy with Tesla Epcot event but also thinking SpaceX announcement was cool… it makes me realize practically that people aren’t really investing in ‘Tesla’ … but Tesla is the possible way for retail to invest emotionally if not practically in the ‘Elon cult’ — and that is the connection… / and the Stans (bot or not very unclear!) stand strong!
- What even is a company in a cult-era? Which leads to this interesting bit where the EU is trying to sword rattle that fines for ‘x’ will be for all of ‘planet elon’ — this on one hand deeply anti-capitalist / absurd — we might as well go back to pre-capitalist debtors prison and give up on the whole innovation of limited liability! BUT on the flip side if ‘cult capitalism means that Elon gets banks to irrationally finance X just to get a bite at SpaceX, VCs finance Elon dalliances, and retail investors buy Tesla not financially but just as part of the ‘cult’ (don’t forget dogecoin!) … there is something to sort out! … fin elon rants.
- Value Seed Investing is What We Do… I was at a conference last week with a lot of non-investors who were asking ‘what do you invest in’ — good question… I think the real answer is that we are ‘value’ seed investors / that is what I care about — which by definition means we are not momentum seed traders, or a seed index fund… but look for the places where the market for non-existent companies at zero are deeply misplaced…
- Which makes it a problem that everyone is figuring out that small business is where it is at — I wish I had another 24 months of ‘seed value investing’ in platforms for small businesses, franchise, etc… because that is clearly where it is at. We have invested in A LOT of these thematically since starting several years ago seeding Teamshares… I want to keep doing it, but when big splashy articles start coming out on HVAC millionaires I worry soon enough this stuff is gonna get over-priced.
- CS degrees are modern typing degrees? People really get angry when you question computer science btw…. We will see who is right here — but to me it seems that one thing that is real with LLMs / AI is that coding becomes closer and closer to writing — everyone does it, it is easy - it is not something you get a degree in vs. just being everywhere and in the ether…. Joe Lonsdale disagrees with me about this :)
- Jackson Hole Global Tech Summit fun time speaking there and hanging with the slow team and other investor friends… enjoyed sitting in the back for Peter Thiel. I always like hearing him in these big setting because a lot I really agree with / smart guy, and some… I do not. My take on the summit overall is it really felt like a mountain version of the old storied New York Tech ‘meetups’ of the late ‘00s — wide range of folks with different reasons for attending, but just in cowboy hats — all in a very nice way.
- Word of advice… don’t send investors updates with click-throughs… if you actually want them to read it…
- Sinwar — good riddance. And wow Israel has had a run of it… the level of competence is truly amazing. The ‘startup nation’ is living up to its name not just in tech, but in execution, execution, execution. (i know, i know, but I couldn't help myself)
Sam
P.S. seriously why don’t point of sale systems personalize the tipping options based on your CC number to maximize revenue? Seems obvious.
P.P.S landed next to some F-35s and some very nice airport people took us out to see them… The future (of drone warfare) is coming – and the F-35 might not be in it — but damn.
sam lessin | @lessin | want to talk | podcast | stop | to get added to the mailing list email [email protected]