The Information subscribers are nine times more optimistic about the tech sector than they are about the overall economy, according to The Information’s first monthly Subscriber Viewpoint survey.
And they’re increasingly optimistic about the long-term prospects of Apple, Alibaba and Airbnb. They’re far less bullish on Square and Twitter.
The above are some key takeaways from our first monthly survey designed to gauge sentiment about the technology industry from tech and business leaders. The Information’s subscriber base is comprised of entrepreneurs, investors, executives and policymakers in more than 46 countries. It’s a small slice of the business world, of course, but an interesting and forward-thinking group.
Subscribers reported a Tech Optimism Score of nine. We calculated that number, which we’ll track every month, by subtracting the percentage of respondents who said they were less optimistic about the overall technology sector this month compared to last (14 percent) from those who said they were more optimistic (23 percent).
The overall economy didn’t fare as well. It received a Optimism Score of one. Subscribers were essentially split between bulls and bears—24% were more optimistic, 23% less optimistic and the remainder were just as optimistic as they were last month. The survey was conducted the week of Nov. 3, which continued the recent run-up in the public markets.
Here’s a breakdown of the rest of the results.
The Companies
We asked respondents whether they were more optimistic, less optimistic or had seen no change in their views about various companies’ long-term potential compared to last month. We scored each company by subtracting those who said they were more pessimistic from those who said they were more optimistic.
We believe this data will become more interesting as we track it over time and that it will offer insight into sentiment around multi-billion dollar private companies, about which little data is publicly available.
Startups founded by Jack Dorsey floundered in our survey. Square came in at the bottom of our list of privately held technology startups, with 58 percent of respondents saying they were less optimistic about Square compared to last month, while only 9 percent said they were more optimistic.
The launch of Apple Pay, a threat to Square’s core payment-processing business, probably contributed to the results. Separately, Apple had the most positive rating, receiving 59 percent more optimistic votes and just 10 percent less optimistic—a score of 49.
Microsoft also fared well, scoring 25. Forty-six percent of respondents said that they were more optimistic about the software company. The company’s stock price has been climbing lately as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has tried to refocus on productivity software.
Twitter, which has shuffled through product leads and issued earnings that disappointed investors, had a tough month.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they were less optimistic, giving the company a negative score of 45. Facebook saw much higher marks. Forty-two percent said they were more optimistic, and 13 percent said they were less optimistic.
Even as Snapchat starts to court advertisers, respondents remained mixed on the company’s long-term outlook. The company received a score of negative 11, with 23 percent more optimistic and 34 percent less optimistic.
Bubble?
When asked how they felt about the typical Series A technology startup, our subscribers answered resoundingly. No one believed that Series A companies were “very undervalued.”
Only 1 percent said they were “somewhat undervalued,” and 84 percent said they were overvalued or very overvalued.
That’s no guarantee that prices will fall, but it’s clear that investors and entrepreneurs think valuations have gotten out of control.
Blurry on Bitcoin
If there was any hope for a Silicon Valley consensus on the future value of bitcoin, our subscribers balked.
We asked subscribers what they thought the price of a bitcoin would be in dollars on Jan. 1, 2020—$0; $10; $100; $1,000; or $10,000 or more. (Today, the price of a bitcoin is $364.)
The plurality of survey respondents, 38 percent, said bitcoin would be worth $1,000. The second most popular option was $100 at 26 percent. About 18 percent of subscribers thought bitcoin’s value would fall to $0.
For someone trying to bet on the price today, there isn’t an obvious answer—49 percent picked a price higher than today’s price, while 51 percent picked a lower price.