investing | writing | podcast | topics | tools | Login

Sam Lessin on Social Media & Platforms

Sam Lessin's analysis of social media platforms, network effects, content moderation, and the evolution of social networks.

Essays

SWL Week in Review - WWE of Silicon Valley

More or Less — ‘Executive Chairman’ We riff on apple, Musk vs. Altman WWE ‘power fight’ (not a money fight)… UBI isn’t gonna solve much, cursor — Jensen’s ‘I didn’t wake up a loser’ stressy moment… my colonoscopy nurse hates AI, and more. HOT TAKES Narrative WWE Warfare When Story Matters More T...


SWL Week in Review - Build Your Own Apps

More or Less — Who Can Afford to Pay Taxes?! We talk all birds, and a bunch about how the decision to sell / hold these big IPOs with huge markups has more to do with relative valuation than price because of taxes! Also I spent most of the episode locked out of my SF office (I don’t have a key) — a...


SWL Week in Review - AI Is Not a Labor Crisis. It Is a Meaning Crisis.

AI Is Not a Labor Crisis. It Is a Meaning Crisis. "Civilizations are not mainly threatened by discomfort; they are threatened by superfluity" People are worried about all sorts of things when it comes to AI… killer robots / AGI deciding to dispose of humanity (on purpose or by accident), a modern ...


SWL Week in Review - Bot or Not

More or Less : Ladies Edition Dave and I went skiing… so the ladies invited some other non-sam-dave people on the podcast. Henrik and Ben on something called ?“donkeycorns”? … will watch it on the flight home because airplane wifi is actually starting to work (and yes, I 100% will pay more and choo...


SWL Week in Review - Master of Bots

More or Less - GTC & Claws Dave and Jess go on and on about GTC … shocker I didn’t go, but if Jensen wants to stop by the poorhouse and sauna for 3 hours he is more than welcome! Dave and I get into a pretty interesting discussion IMHO on ‘is Openclaw an OS’… what does an OS even mean / what is the...


SWL Week in Review - A Commodity Without Monopoly Power

More or Less — Dark Pools and Commodified Intelligence There is no question that developer demand more tokens… but do consumers? For what really? Is there any real margin in generic martix multiplication or is the market for ‘intelligence’ just the cost of power … and brutal competition in a world ...


SWL Week in Review - Roblox for Adults

More or Less - Capitalism at Work Collapsing Margins to Zero We discuss Stripe / PayPal (the only question is regulatory / do collisions want to be in front of congress for years once administrations change over)… and spend a lot on this big question of what happens when building software goes the ...


SWL Week in Review - Chosen by the Claw.

More or Less - Twitter Was Elon’s Ultimate Vibe Buy & Holy SpaceX The world is moving so fast this big news feels already old… but we break down more Elon world… The ‘vibe buy’ of X (remember when he tried to back out) as a HUGELY positive move for shaping the narrative through the elites & degens ...


SWL Week in Review - half-kelly

More or Less — Have Secret or Own Narrative Jess is in Davos… we are left behind with the riffraff… fun conversation around Clawdbot, Ralph — mercenary AI ‘founders’ … I was personally interested in some of the conversation we got into re: how to support hardware businesses in a world where your 8-...


SWL Week in Review - clawdbot

More Or Less — Clawdbot & the Personal Security Apocalypse Clawdbot is incredible. It’s also the moment you should immediately realize: this is how it ends. Local permissions to your drive, screen, and windows are the cleanest on-ramp imaginable to a locked-down internet, hardened enclaves, an...


SWL Week in Review - Positivity?

More or Less - A Touch Of Optimism? Thanks to all the folks who felt necessary to message back about my downer email last week… all the media people were like ‘yah this sounds right’ and all the investors were like ‘stop being a bummer’ for what that is worth… this weeks MOL / week 1 of 2026 we are...


SWL Week in Review - The Narratives of ’26

So what are the themes of the year that actually matter? The stories we tell ourselves about the world have always mattered a great deal… but we live in a particularly strong moment of narrative power and narrative instability. Fundamentally this is all because of the internet -- a new human superp...


SWL Week in Review - Code Red Realities

More or Less — Code Red Realities We start non-Ai with an ode to Daniel Lurie’s social media game (excellent…) — and then go deep discussing OpenAI ‘code red’ realities… When the leader says ‘hard left’ but then can only shake free 5 engineers, how hard it is to hard pivot a bunch of expensive desi...


SWL Week in Review - AI Business Model Wars

More Or Less — AI Business Model Wars & Marketing Genius of Silicon Valley Thanksgiving week updates form the Surf Shack (instead of Pool House)… Dave really wants OpenAI to be in the steve-jobs style ‘computer’ business, but all the ex-meta people there seem to be talking (and marketing) attentio...


SWL Week in Review - Finger Size

More or Less - Wearables and Finger Size We discuss lots of angles on wearables… rings, earrings, glasses, and more…. Also somehow we have reversed roles and I am the one defending Apple??? Again. Checkins on ettiequte, mini-defense tanks, and more… Hot Takes Meta Etiquette — I just love how thi...


From the Podcast

Well, to be clear, be clear, you just Google and Facebook, right? As your two examples, neither of those. Well, let's start with Google and Facebook, which are actually much more profitable businesses, right? Amazon's a tough business, right? Like those two businesses are not commerce businesses. They're attention businesses and like an advertising businesses. Commerce, I remember for years, everyone was like, well, why doesn't, you know, Metta spend time on commerce and there've been some attempts or whatever. You know why? Cause commerce is a bad business.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 139

I just think it's funny that like, you think about the two com the two companies, Jack is like Twitter and square, right? Or wherever it is called. What is it called block? And you're like, okay, so like Twitter, Elon did it for him and cut that from like 1000s of people to like 200 people or whatever ridiculous number it now is. And he's like, probably I should do this one myself. Right? Like, it's, it's a cover story. But it's also it's a cover story because like, but at the same time, it's like,

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep more_or_less_indian_wells_2026_03

Or, or are they just, or are they just like trying desperately to stay in the news cycle when other stuff is going on? Like I gotta say, I'm like right now on Twitter looking at Senator Bernie's. I'm liking, I'm enjoying Senator Sanders, Bernie Sanders. Will AI becomes part of the humans if snow is humanity? I went to Silicon Valley to ask them leading AI experts first. Bernie Sanders is running around San Francisco, San Francisco asking people AI questions.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep more_or_less_indian_wells_2026_03

Lots of people play and there's lots of reps to get good. Whereas the market for selling, mean, for years it was just hold for the IPO for your winners, never sell anything, don't sell Facebook and that's all that matters. But that's a load of horseshit. So.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 99

Of course it is, I just exported on Twitter. I just went to chat, OpenAI, and said, give me a file that everything another AI would need to know to be good at optimizing for me. And it just dumped me a file, it's like pretty good. And like the reality is, like, because of GDPR laws in the EU, there's no way that these companies are gonna get away with locking up your data. It's gonna be so easy to export. And then just some, and the whole point is...

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 97

What's so interesting this week is also this thing going on related to OpenAI's 4.0 model, where Sam Altman, I actually wrote a piece on votes in the LLM era a couple weeks ago on Twitter. And I was saying that the personality is going to be a vote in the LLM era. And I think it's super interesting that the overtuned 4.0.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 97

because I lived in the era where the big blue app was the central golden goose, and there were vicious fights about the second and third tab in the app. Vicious fights, right? And then you couldn't do anything that would disrupt the core thing, so you really couldn't get in front of the people. And then you ended up with this era of like, was my favorite was, you remember when you click on the more tab on the blue app, and it would be like Facebook clock. And you're like, why the fuck? It's like, how did this become Yahoo? Right? Like when?

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 97

It's not Facebook. It's not Google. It's not a good business, right? Like that's the big difference is you just have to understand the business model on these things. like, not all things that people like are good businesses.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

Anyway, so the point is when I think the graph data ability, the targeting, but that's all turned out to play out nowhere near as expected. And the second thing to keep in mind is all these networks like Twitter. If you go and say, export my data, I'm taking it with me on Twitter. It's hilarious. You should do it. If you haven't, they give you intentionally like the most broken inoperable file format. like, here's your data, but yeah, but they're not, they can't. It's like literally like, tell me everything you know about me. And like, by the way, you know what the beauty of an LLM is. It makes it super easy to reconstruct all that stuff.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

No, here's the thing. First of all, on the Facebook thing and like what happened there, right? It turned out the data wasn't so much of a note and you know what it was? Apple's interoperable iOS address book totally shattered that, right? Because it basically created a framework for making all of your contacts portable, which is how all these networks grew, right? Like pre with, and there's a whole corporate history to how that played out, but like there's deep portability of the graph of quote unquote, the graph, which was supposed to be not portable. Second,

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

All right. Well, let me, let me kind of state it and then you can refute it. So first on the, on the point that like, that the, the data part, here's the thing. I actually, I love this thesis. When I worked at Metta slash now Facebook now Metta, my team was called the identity team. And I spent all of my time on how do we organize and use history and memory and context to build a moat, right? The idea was like other people will come, there'll be better ways to post. But if we know everything about you and have the deepest knowledge, we're going to have the best targeting. We're going be able to like, undefeatable moat.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

It was Facebook was massively profitable from the early days. It was always almost zero cost from a user perspective. It was a great business from the very early days. Now it was going to get better. There was a bunch of steps to making it better. But there was no question that from a fundamental perspective, it was a killer business from an efficient. Same thing with Google. Google made so much money. Like it was a killer business. Now it got better. But like it fundamentally started there. By the way, they both had deep, especially Facebook deep network effects.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

And a lot of people who went there actually made a ton of money in the Facebook era. And then for the last 10 years, they've been depressed, right? Because there's like no corporate experience, like after that high that you're going to get again. so when, so anything that sorta looks like it, they jump on because they're desperate for that high again. They want that experience. It's like nothing else is exciting. And so the pattern match,

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

It's much more, it's much more cynical than that, which is basically in the early internet, you had Google and Facebook, which had two things. One is they had explosive user growth. had unbelievable. They had all these amazing, they were also unfucking believably good businesses, right? From like a fundamentals perspective, the costs versus the potential that monetization was like off the charts. Good. Right. And a lot of people of our generation experienced that. And it was like the most exciting, most amazing world changing thing you could possibly experience.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

So can I please play the under on this? So I think you're totally wrong. me, like, so just to push back, I agree that a bunch of Facebook people have gone there, right, over time. And I have a much more cynical read than you do about that, which is here's what happened. No, no, no, it's actually, it's much more cynical.

— Sam Lessin, More or Less Ep 93

Tweets

I am pretty sure I would rather buy coinbase at $16B vs. twitter at $44B

May 11, 2022 · 2525 likes · link

Twitter opened in 2013 at 41.65 a share - inflation adjusted that is 51.22 today dollars (about)... going private at 54.20 -- that was a hell of a lot of work and time for $2.98

April 27, 2022 · 1092 likes · link

Is @elonmusk's relationship with twitter that different than tesla in his own mind? sure he owns more of tesla (17% vs 9%) but not dramatically. in both cases he comes in non-founder investor, & then leads by making a bunch of product oriented claims on the internet ;)

April 10, 2022 · 1029 likes · link

Facebook now has 3B MAU. There are ~4.5B internet users, 750M are in China, so ~80% of everyone else globally now users FB monthly 🤯

April 30, 2020 · 743 likes · link

Investors who post on twitter open calls for 'i am in {place} who should I meet' or 'i am interested in {theme} who should I talk to' are LAME

March 22, 2022 · 339 likes · link

No, It Isn’t Cool to Have a Punk as Your Twitter Profile… https://t.co/4wu95cFGSN

September 04, 2021 · 306 likes · link

Part of me feels like Elon is just executing an elaborate Kabuki play to sell tesla stock at a huge valuation. first the 'poll' for 10%, now 8b to buy twitter - I don't blame him at all - but clear special challenge of cult leadership is managing selling.

April 29, 2022 · 273 likes · link

The Summer 2022 VC Twitter Meme of “You Should Have 36 Months of Runway” kinda simplistic / misses the point (if not outright manipulative). https://t.co/wFlPTAdlRO

July 07, 2022 · 269 likes · link

With twitter revenue confirmed down 40%... the logical acquirer is SNAP (where before it was the other way around) What a hilarious end to a hilarious company that would be. https://t.co/QfJCaSuopP

January 18, 2023 · 236 likes · link

So Jack Leaves Twitter... Twitter immediately commits to content moderation and Square immediately rebrands as a crypto-style .xyz -- in 2021 this makes 100% sense, i know where i would want to spend time ...

December 01, 2021 · 187 likes · link

At both Bain and Facebook I slept in the office plenty of times (and was hardly the only one, one person i won't name did it at Facebook for months secretly...) -- we def didn't get beds and pillows... https://t.co/g87GDOjiKt

February 28, 2023 · 161 likes · link

It almost feels like VCs & Journalists on twitter have figured out the old reality TV (and WWF) trick of staging fights to mutually drive their personal brands. https://t.co/mW8q6LpzEK

July 03, 2020 · 156 likes · link

authenticity on social media... https://t.co/3ZwpZGJV6a

February 01, 2025 · 151 likes · link

@bradrobertson the difference is that everyone understands social media to be untrustworthy, we need institutions like the NYT to represent a higher standard of trust, because if they are just social media as well, we are in a world of pain as a democracy

November 07, 2023 · 127 likes · link

Lol -- apparently @rajgokal, the co-founder of Solana just got twitter suspended for responding 'directly' to my 'GM' tweet... well that got completely out of hand fast... ;) https://t.co/ZlV4nC03f7

November 08, 2021 · 120 likes · link

... the difference (which he might or might not see) in the case of tesla his pt barnum act actually was pretty valuable to the company, since tesla's job for last decade was to raise enough money thru belief to not die (just like spaceX) - twitter is in a different spot.

April 10, 2022 · 109 likes · link

@bijan @ev The kinda amazing part is that from a market-cap perspective 500MM of FB stock in 2008 is about equal to twitter's current valuation!

May 29, 2020 · 93 likes · link

I will give you this, skimming techmeme -- Elon running twitter 3 days in is at least pretty fun. I really like this return to top-down product instinct first social network decision making of the '00s vs. micro-test-and-learn everything of the '10s. we will see if they deliver!

October 31, 2022 · 83 likes · link

How funny would it be if @elonmusk used this to weed out who to ban / kick off of twitter -- if you voted "yes" you are now deactivated! 100% of remaining people want me! purging dissent only cost me 7-8 million accounts! that is how they would do it in the french revolution https://t.co/w7ep3ca93M

December 19, 2022 · 78 likes · link

On Adam Neumann’s ‘Flow’ & Andreessen’s Enormous Investment: what makes sense and what doesn't... -- In very early 2015, right after I left Facebook I had a very long and entertaining meeting with Adam Neumann. He pitched me coming to .... https://t.co/zpUyyW3CGS https://t.co/Baefy5W08Y

August 16, 2022 · 69 likes · link